One of the most basic concepts in Sit and gos is The Bubble. You can’t read another article on SNG strategy without seeing the term, so it’s important to know what it means.
The Bubble is the point in a tournament where, after the next elimination, every other player will be “in the money”.
The cornerstone of SNG strategy is getting to the bubble with a good amount of fold equity, then being the smartest aggressive player against the blinds.
However, this week I’m going to highlight the importance of being patient at the bubble. Think about this: you make nothing if you don’t make the bubble, and usually earn a little profit if you beat it.
Of course you want to put yourself in a position to win it all, but wouldn’t you rather win something than nothing?
Here’s an example to highlight what we are talking about:
All-Ins at The Bubble
Imagine you are in a 4 player tournament where the top 3 get paid. Stacks are as follows:
Player 1 : 2000 Chips
Player 2 : 1500 Chips
Player 3 : 1300 Chips
You : 800 Chips
Player 3 shoves, Player 2 shoves, Player 1 shoves over. You look down at AA. Some of you might be salivating right now.
I’d fold AA? I must be stupid, right? Wrong:
It makes no sense to get allin against 3 players that have you covered.
In a cash game, I’d call here in a heartbeat because the Chip EV of the play is positive. You will always have a net positive expected value here.
However, the $EV of calling would likely be negative. One, if not two players are going to bust out here immediately. You could instantly go from 4th place to 2nd place, heads up against Player 1 if he wins this allin.
You could go from 4th place to in the money and in second place (Player 1 will have 500 chips) if player 2 wins. Similarly, if player 3 wins you’d be in second place (player 1 would have 700, player 2 would have 200).
What do you get if you win? Well, you basically become the chip leader with 2,400 against 3 opponents with 1200, 700 and 500.
That means you could still easily bubble, or end up in second or third place. If you go all-in and lose, you get nothing in a situation where you are likely to end up in 2nd or 3rd place!
In this case, I’ve highlighted two things:
- Patience and tight play at the bubble can be good in some spots
- A +EV play for # of chips isn’t necessarily +EV in $. More on that in a later Independent Chip Model article.
Getting to the Bubble
Don’t get me wrong – aggression at the bubble is key. No good SNG player is exclusively passive at the bubble.
You want to scare people by putting them at risk of busting out, without taking stupid risks yourself. However, a smart player understands that once there, don’t butt heads stupidly if everyone is willing to bust out ahead of you and give you a free ride to second place.
Having highlighted good patient play at the bubble, next week I’ll show you how to ramp up the aggression and go for 1st place.
