Last week I talked about situations where you want to be patient at the bubble. These situations are generally the exception rather than the rule.
Good players are aggressive in the bubble of an SNG. This is because shoving all-in is better than calling all-in. Why?
- Calling puts you at risk of losing a ton of chips, though you have a chance to win big
- Shoving has the same risk, with the added benefit of fold equity. You profit every time your opponent folds
Your theoretical ranges are determined by the Independent Chip Model. This is another article series on its own, but you should study ICM and get a program like ICMIZER or SNG Wizard.
Bubble Aggression: Being a Larger Stack
I’m going to share one fundamental idea about aggression at the bubble:
Ideal bubble play requires aggressive all-in steals and re-steals against players with smaller stacks than you. Be a bully.
Why? Because doing so is a win-win situation:
- You threaten to bust other players, giving yourself a ton of fold equity. This grows your stack for “in the money” play
- Players call, and you generally have a good shot at busting them out and entering the money.
Bubble Aggression: Being a Smaller Stack
As a small stack, you can often not wait around for someone else to bust out. Your stack might be 3-5 BB, and every blind you bleed crushes your stack for a huge fraction.
In these situations, you want to steal from the other small stacks and look for high equity all-ins against the big stacks.
Doubling up from a 5bb to a 10bb stack has mega-implications for your $EV in that SNG.
Bubble Aggression: Some Conclusions
This is why SNGs are high variance. You are required to be extremely aggressive and threaten all-ins to be profitable. Players who simply get to the bubble and try not to bleed out do not put themselves in a good position to win it all.
Sometimes, you will lose your chip lead and kick yourself for being aggressive. Other times, you will try a last ditch steal and bust out when you think you could have waited a bit longer.
What you need to remember are all the times you bled out waiting for the bubble, or let a good stack go to waste by not going for a chip lead.
Over the long run, aggression will maximize your ROI.
