In our Poker Hand of the Week we analyze the biggest pot of this week from the Heads-Up Grudge Match between Nik Airball and Matt Berkey worth §470,600, which not only brought Berkey a big win, but also the overall lead.
Poker Hand of the Week Setup
The Heads-Up Grudge Match between Nik Airball and Matt Berkey is the topic of the moment in the poker world. That’s why we continue to analyze the biggest pots and most interesting spots of the match.
They are playing $200/$400 Heads-Up No-Limit Hold’em with a minimum buy-in of $100,000. Both players are very deep with effective stacks being 595 big blinds. Airball has Berkey covered.
Poker Hand of the Week Action
Preflop:
Matt Berkey raises from the button to $1,000 and Nik Airball 3-bets to $4,800. Berkey calls. Pot Size: $9,600
Flop:
The flop comes J♠Q♣A♥, which favours the range of the preflop 3-bettor. Nik Airball now chooses a huge makes a continuation bet sizing with an overbet of $15,000 and Matt Berkey calls. Pot Size: $39,600
Turn:
The turn Q♠ brings another Queen. Airball once again overbets the pot by betting $45,000 and Berkey calls again. Pot Size: $129,600
River:
The 2♦ on the river is a blank and Nik fires a third barrel worth $100,000. Matt thinks about 40 seconds and then moves All-In for $241,000.
Nik Airball shouts “How is this possible?” before folding his hand and Matt Berkey wins a huge $470,600 without showing his cards.
Poker Hand of the Week Analysis
Huge pot, but no showdown, so we will play guess the poker hands.
The hand starts with a standard button raise from Berkey and then Nik makes a big 4.8x 3-bet, which is a reasonable sizing given that the effective stack size is 565 big blinds.
The A-Q-J flop benefits the preflop raiser and Airball now makes a huge overbet of $15,000 into $9,600, Berkey just calls. Nik has more big Aces such as AK to A10 in his range, but also all the pairs, while Berkey’s calling range mainly consists of Suited Broadways and Connectors and small pocket pairs.
On the turn the board pairs with another Queen. At first glance this seems like a good card for the preflop aggressor to fire a second barrel on, but the preflop caller actually has more Queens in his range with KQ, QJ, QT, Q9s and occasionally even AQo. Airball fires another huge overbet and Matt Berkey calls again.
The Deuce on the river is as blank as it gets and Nik Airball bets $100,000 into $129,600. Berkey then moves All-in for $241,000 and Airball folds.
Poker Hand of the Week Conclusion
Guess the Hand!
In my opinion it is pretty likely that Matt Berkey has a full house here and most likely is holding QJ. He could even have AQo as he doesn’t have to 4-bet this hand preflop as they are both very deep and Berkey has position.
Berkey’s range is very nutted as even K10 for the flopped straight doesn’t raise and just calls river.
Putting Nik Airball on a hand is much more difficult as he is having all medium pairs, Ax and bluffs. Keep in mind that Airball has been overbetting flop and turn throughout the heads-up match with both the Nuts and Stone Cold Bluffs.
That’s why I put Airball on a bluff here. He doesn’t have a Queen as he would call. Same goes for a hand such as AK given the very favourable pot odds of 3.8 to 1, where you have to call with call it off with top pair top kicker.
The only reasonable value hands Airball could have are the AJ combos for a flopped Two Pair, which got counterfeited on the turn. All the rest are bluffs.
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Watch the Poker Hand of the Week here:
Big pot@berkey11 all in for 241k after @nikairball bet 100k on river pic.twitter.com/B24qwE2wvY
— Ryan Feldman (@TheRyanFeldman) April 23, 2023
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