Daniel Negreanu and Phil Hellmuth have hit the headlines once again. This time with a Super High Roller tournament bet worth $400k to the Poker Brat if he can show a profit from playing 50 of the Aria’s $25k buy-in events.
Bet offered and accepted:
I’m laying $400k to @phil_hellmuth $200k that over 50 $25k buy in @AriaLV tournaments that Hellmuth will end up in the red.
If he shows a $1 profit he wins the bet.
— Daniel Negreanu (@RealKidPoker) March 2, 2021
$400,000 if Phill Hellmuth can beat the $25K ARIA tournaments
With the pair currently setting out details for their very own highstakes heads-up duel, due to start mid-March, it seems they couldn’t resist a bet on Hellmuth’s tournament prowess to go with it.
However, despite getting 2-1 odds from his longtime friend and rival, the catch for Hellmuth is that short-field, elite SHR events are not his normal poker arena – although he has 15 WSOP bracelets and almost $25million in tournament cashes to his name.
This doesn’t mean he hasn’t had some success in the big buy-in events, with a 4th place at the 2017 Poker Masters $50k at the Aria. The previous year he came 4th again, in the Super High Roller Bowl, a $1.6million cash from his $300k buy-in.
A quick trawl through the last few years’ worth of Aria $25k tournaments shows roughly 20 players taking part on average, three in the money, with a mean winners’ payout of about $230k.
With a $140k average podium payout, and Hellmuth’s basic buy-ins amounting to $1.25million, he’d have to cash in roughly 20% of his 50 attempts.
Quite how long it would take big Phil to complete the challenge is unclear, but it’s likely to be at least a year even if he manages to play every $25k the Aria puts on.
The Director of Poker Ops at the Vegas casino, Sean McCormack, tweeted out the rough schedule for his cardroom’s highroller crowd.
We have a few a month on average. Summer months and busier times can yield more.
— Sean McCormack (@ThePokerBoss) March 3, 2021
Another pro betting against Hellmuth
As in the upcoming highstakes duel between Negreanu and Hellmuth, however, the money was quick to go on DNegs, with Bosnian-born poker star Ali Imsirovic getting Hellmuth riled up…
Hi @aliImsirovic, I didn’t realize you had such a low opinion of my tournament Hold’em skills. Thank you for being honest, much better than having you snipe from the shadows. Let’s see what happens over the next 10 years in NoLimHold’em tourneys, and specifically, in $25K buy ins https://t.co/skTyMmYv1A
— phil_hellmuth (@phil_hellmuth) March 3, 2021
The fans will be hoping that the 10-year comment was a nod at his own enviable longevity in poker rather than Phil’s assessment of how long it will take him to complete the challenge.
Some were quick to point out that Phil could make it a very difficult bet for Negreanu to collect on if they don’t set a timeframe for the challenge…
That’s why he should have say exactly 24 months or whatever to complete or he owes 100k donation to charity or Daniels choice . And the shame of admitting he stalled out to save 100k
— JoeySal (@JoeSalOG) March 3, 2021
…while the ‘Poker Brat’ will need to mirror some of Imsirovic’s own recent great showing at the Aria tables, a couple of big wins last week totalling more than $500k…
There were plenty of Twitter poker followers who had Phil’s back for the challenge, a selection of the comments below…
- ‘Everyone’s sleeping on ya Phil… no clue why, results speak for themselves. Used to be a dnegs fan, but after that interview, team Hellmuth for life’
- ‘If there’s one thing you cannot doubt in this world it’s Phil Hellmuth’s tournament Hold ‘Em skills…though happy for me will be the day you win the WSOP 2-7 Lowball Draw…’
- ‘Somewhat disrespectful to the greatest hold em tournament player of all time I’d say’
VIP Grinders will be following all the action between Negreanu and Hellmuth when their Highstakes Duel kicks off. You can check out the latest here.
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