Prop betting in the poker world is hardly new – weight loss, bike rides, and MMA fights among them – but Bill Perkins’ latest offer of $100,000 involves something a bit more cerebral…chess!
I'm a chess addict lately, so naturally I have a #Chess prop bet. 100k 🤑 to anyone who can beat Stockfish on its highest setting ONCE out of ten games at the ThirstLounge. Controlled setting run by @LawrenceTrentIM
PS 2700 rating or higher to try#Masters
— Bill Perkins (Guy) (@bp22) September 16, 2019
To add to the financial incentive, this week saw Mike ‘Timex’McDonald jokingly describe Bill’s challenge as ‘sufficiently dumb’ and ‘stingy’ -and then he bumped up the freeroll prize to a cool $1million.
I stand by thinking this is a sufficiently dumb challenge that despite being stingy I'll up the stakes 10x.
Bill offers 100k if someone can beat stockfish. If I look at it and determine it was a "fair" win I'll offer 900k if they beat it again to give the champ a cool million. https://t.co/Juo0urlDvs
— Mike McDonald (@MikeMcDonald89) September 23, 2019
The $1million prize? All you need to do is defeat chess-playing software program Stockfish once out of 10 games and then repeat the feat. That, say those in the know, makes it Mission Impossible.
Perkins, like fellow high stakes poker players Daniel Negreanu and Charlie Carrel, has caught the chess bug.
By all accounts he has improved his chess skills quickly – but it seems he hasn’t yet realized just how reliable the modern-day chess engines are.
Stockfish, an open-source UCI engine, is rated around 3500. That’s 1000 points higher than Grandmaster level, and some 650 above current World Champion, Magnus Carlsen.
McDonald, a former competitive chess player, has a better idea of what the massive challenge entails. In fact, ‘Timex’ only turned to poker after his chess coach – who played online poker to supplement his income – taught him the basics of cards.
Can a human defeat Stockfish?
So, what are the chances that a human could defeat Stockfish at its highest level of play?
Mathematically, it’s just not going to happen; however, much is offered.
The ELO rating scale shows that Carlsen playing Stockfish at full strength should see him lose 99-1 in a 100-game match-up.
If that one point comes from a win, then the Perkins challenge is doable, but more likely it would be from a couple of draws.
English International Master and chess commentator Lawrence Trent, pictured below with former World title challenger Fabiano Caruana, and called in by Bill to referee the challenge, explained this further.
Describing McDonald as“a very decent chess player,” Trent said: “I think if anyone who knows Mike, for him to offer a 10x on an already hefty freeroll does reflect how he feels about this – that it is nigh on impossible.”
This, says Trent, is “an opinion shared by most. Defeating Stockfish seems nigh on impossible.”
A tweak of the rules, according to Lawrence, “scoring 1/10 through any means possible” – that is, two draws, not using an engine to help – “feels much more feasible.
In his opinion, “A GM would have to do some serious homework to be able to steer the game towards drawish endings.”
The Englishman would love to see Carlsen, or his most recent challenger, Fabiano Caruana, “give it a go,” though he believes that anyone rated below 2700 (all but 37 players in the world) are “drawing dead.”
Although nobody has stepped up to the plate as yet, Lawrence thinks McDonald’s extra cash could swing it.
“I think $1million is definitely enough for one of the Über-elite players to try,” he says, adding: “It will be very interesting to see if anyone does actually rise to the challenge.
He ends by stating: “Either way, I think another event which brings together the poker and chess worlds can only be a good thing.”
That’s also the view of Jennifer Shahade, one of the most experienced chess/poker combination players in the world.
Shahade’s take on the challenge
Shahade is a two-time US Women’s chess champion, a WGM (Woman Grandmaster, the same level as Trent’s IM title) and lifted the Open-Faced Chinese Highroller title in Prague in 2014 for her career-best poker cash, $122,827.
Jennifer says of the Perkins chess challenge: “While this freeroll may be extremely difficult to win, I think it’s so promising that an entrepreneur like Bill Perkins is becoming so interested in chess.
“I expect that this prop bet will ultimately lead to something very exciting, even if it’s a twist on the original idea.
Jennifer has the first-hand experience of Perkins’ own chess abilities, revealing: “I can say from playing a bit with Bill on chess.com that he’s gotten a lot better at the game quickly
“There was even a very funny game I had with Bill where he had a move in the endgame that would have led to a BETTER position for him…
So twisted that Black has a nearly WINNING move here. Thankfully he didn’t find it 😈 pic.twitter.com/uy9eVfgEIn
— Jennifer Shahade (@JenShahade) August 24, 2019
If someone does take up Perkins and McDonald’s $1million challenge, and somehow wins, there is perhaps a more significant challenge ahead already. The chess-playing AI AlphaZero, which went from absolute beginner to demolishing Stockfish in mere hours.
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